…November 2024

Despite a busy round of news headlines, from multiple conflcts to violent storms, November has mostly been about the calm before the storm, the sharp intake of breath, the oceans receding before the giant tsunami wave comes rushing back at us.

Yes, the orange one is back. Almost. Donald Trump will have to wait till January to pick up the keys to the Whitehouse but that has not stopped him making a series of announcements on tariffs and trade barriers that have left other world leaders blinking into the headlights – and that’s just America’s allies. 

We need to see Trump’s rise in its true context. The first cold war, the face-off between the West and the Soviet Union, ended in defeat for the Soviets when the Berlin Wall fell. However, we can now see the 30 years or so that followed as merely a transition to the new, as yet undefined, but certainly more complex reality that will pitch the haves against the have-nots and is likely to see a lot more conflict, both hot and cold. 

The key to this is to understand the failings of the last 30 years or so, the transition that ended with the pandemic. This was the peak of liberal democracy, matched with low interest rates that drove massive technological advances. But the wealth that accompanied this remained highly concentrated.

Now we are entering a new phase in which the redistribution of wealth is driving a new geopolitical reality. Voters in the affluent Western democracies are turning to more right-wing politicians to protect their interests, including Trump and Orban. More and more people are simply migrating from poorer countries to richer ones in search of a better life. Nations in the global south are banding together to flex their muscles and many poorer countries are now demanding reparations for the injustices of slavery and colonialism, and for the industrialisation that is now changing the world’s climate. And absolutely everybody will be affected by damage to crops caused by changes in weather patterns that will drive up food prices. 

This brings us to this month’s COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, which cannot be said to have been a resounding success. The host, Azerbaijan’s autocratic leader Ilham Aliyev, praised oil and gas as a gift from God while a group of prominent climate policy experts have said that the COP talks are no longer fit for purpose. Instead, the UN has said that it’s now up to the G20 countries to agree financing to help the poorest companies cope with the climate crisis. If only there was a way to turn all the hot air produced at these summits into energy…

Talks between 200 nations over the last two years that aimed to tackle plastic pollution collapsed this month because oil producing nations blocked calls to phase out the production of plastic. However, a group of 95 countries has emerged, including the UK and EU, as well as many African and South American nations, that wants to see a reduction in plastic production and increase in plastic recycling. This group may yet go ahead and agree its own standards. 

Meanwhile, the latest must-have accessory for world leaders is an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court with both Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Vladimir Putin of Russia fashionably indicted, along with with Israel’s former defence secretary Yoav Gallant as well as the Hamas leader Mohammed Deif who is widely believed to have been killed in an Israeli air strike. The Americans have called Netanyahu’s indictment ‘shameless’ and called for sanctions against countries that implement it. But this is little more than petulance since they praised the same court when it issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. That’s the problem with independent courts – and journalists – they provide a necessary balance but don’t always stick to the script. 

An uneasy ceasefire in Lebanon has provided a rare glimmer of hope and yet the Middle East remains finely balanced between disaster and all-out catastrophe. Hezbollah still dominates Lebanon and the Houthis still control large parts of Yemen. Gaza has been reduced to a wasteland and its people left traumatised and dying. Israel clearly had a right to defend itself but its brutal response has left it regionally isolated, while also drawing the US and European nations into the fire pit. Iran continues to orchestrate most of the mayhem and its close links with Russia adds a European dimension. Throw in China and North Korea’s interests and it’s easy to see how this could spiral quickly out of control.

Elsewhere, the continuing conflict in Ukraine, heightened by the risk that Trump might impose an unworkable truce, has concentrated the fears of European leaders. All around the European continent there is a sense that the hour is getting late and that the wind of war has begun to howl. Sweden, Finland and Denmark have all recently issued guidance to their citizens on how to stock up to survive for a week on their own in the event of war or other national disaster. Meanwhile an undersea telecommunications cable between Finland and Germany has been severed prompting a joint statement from the two countries’ foreign ministers: “Our European security is not only under threat from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors.” A second cable, between Sweden and Estonia has also been cut. Trump, naturally, has added to the unease by suggesting that America might not honour its commitments to NATO allies. Instead his approach to defence is essentially talk loudly and offer empty threats.

Yet all this pales into the background noise for most ordinary citizens against the ongoing backdrop of economic chaos and failing public services. Britain, for example, has been debating whether or not to allow assisted dying for terminally ill people. MPs were told to vote with their conscience – a novel concept for most of them – and seem genuinely surprised at passing the bill. Sadly there is still not much chance of any assistance for the living emerging from Westminster.

The latest group to protest are farmers, unhappy at a change in inheritance tax. The TV presenter Jeremy Clarkson spoke up for his farming peeps until it emerged that he only bought his farm to reduce his tax exposure, suggesting that the chancellor may have had a valid point in closing this loophole. Nonetheless, Starmer is in danger of losing this argument because he has yet to articulate any kind of economic analysis or political solution other than that things will get tougher before they get better, which is not very reassuring. 

The Bank of England used its November meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee to cut its base rate to 4.75 percent. However, far from stimulating a  widespread cut in interest rates, many banks actually increased their mortgage rates. This is partly due to fears that inflation may rise over the winter, plus the recognition that there are unlikely to be many more cuts to the base rate. Indeed, the Bank’s own forecast suggests that last month’s budget will push up Britain’s inflation rate by around 0.5 percent, whilst simultaneously also increasing the Gross Domestic Product by up to 0.75 percent. 

November also saw the publication of Britain’s Q3 figures covering the first three months of the Labour government from July to September showing GDP of just 0.1 percent. Most analysts have blamed this on negative briefing from Reeves and Starmer in the run up to last month’s Budget, which led to many businesses delaying investment decisions. However, the underlying problem seems to be a fall in manufacturing output coupled with poor exports. Nonetheless, further interest rate cuts are likely to be put on hold. 

This was followed up by the Office for National Statistics figures for October, which showed that inflation rose to 2.3 percent. This is largely due to rising energy costs and some global friction on trade. Since both of these trends are likely to continue upwards, most economists are forecasting further rises to inflation over the next few months. 

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said in a speech that Brexit has undermined Britain’s economy and called on the government to improve its relationship with the EU. Starmer too has talked about the need for a reset between the UK and EU though the EU has accused him of doing little more than talking about this. Against this, there is the increasing likelihood that Trump will force Britain to choose between the US and EU.

The EU itself is in a precarious position with its two largest economies – Germany and France – both faltering. France is suffering from a huge debt burden, leading its government to propose a radical budget to restructure the economy that may lead to the collapse of the government and a new financial crisis as the heart of the Eurozone. 

Meanwhile, the European Commission predicts that Germany’s GDP will contract by around 0.1 percent this year. Disagreements within the three-way governing coalition over the economy led to its collapse last month, and eventually, after some deliberating, the Germans have now opted for a general election in February with the expectation that the current chancellor Olaf Scholz will lose.

China also is feeling the pinch with the Chinese government announcing 10 trillion yuan of funding for local governments to cover debt support and reduce China’s hidden debt. This is debt that has not been disclosed to citizens or creditors and is said to be around 14.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2023, though some experts have said it could be as high as 50 trillion yuan. This debt largely grew after the 2008 financial crisis and is now contributing to inflation. This announcement follows Trump’s election and promise of more tariffs, which will disrupt Chinese exports, which the Chinese economy relies heavily on.

Fortunately Trump has been on hand throughout this month to dispense his special brand of comedy, which so far has mostly been delivered through the medium of handing out government jobs to people who are wholly unsuited for them. Trump has taken the highly inefficient step of appointing not one but two people, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, to run the new Department of Government Efficiency. Given the bang-up job that Musk has been doing with Twitter, we can reasonably expect some parts of the federal government to stop working altogether. 

This move also calls into question X’s independence from the US government, and whether or not governments in other countries should regulate it, especially since it has now become a haven for hate speech. Many companies, such as the Guardian newspaper, have switched from X to BlueSky (where you can also find me under @nessanc.bsky.social). One of the strengths of democracy is a free press that ensures that everyone has access to accurate information. So the first step in countering many of the threats that face us should be to put a stop to the disinformation campaigns from Russian and Chinese bots that proliferate on platforms like X. The question then becomes, how far will Trump go to defend US platforms against any regulation in other countries?

This goes to the heart of the problem that Europeans, including the British, are just beginning to wake up to: first we have to protect ourselves from our friends; only then can we defend ourselves against our enemies.